Strategic News: Mark Anderson Delivers 10 Predictions for 2013

Forbes provides an overview of the latest computing and telecommunications predictions for 2013 from tech guru Mark Anderson, as published in his Strategic News Service newsletter.

1) Tablets or “CarryAlongs” will become the dominant segment of computing devices.

2) Intel will fade into obscurity as Qualcomm and ARM take over computing, dominating the production of mobile chips.

3) Most U.S. homes will have Internet-enabled TVs, and other developed nations will follow suit as bandwidth improves.

4) The LTE vs. fiber battle will determine carriers’ business model for the years to come. “Customers choosing broadband LTE in DSL-served regions will be paying more and getting more; but those choosing LTE in fiber-served regions will be paying more for wireless broadband but getting less.”

5) Google will become the next Apple. “Google’s efforts in email, video, smartphones, maps, and driverless cars open up new long-term expansion paths, with more to follow.”

6) The driverless car will work toward ubiquity as countries pass laws to allow it and major brands work on developing new features.

7) e-Books will substantially outpace paperback sales in 2013 and will eventually dominate the market.

8) “Enterprise IT struggles to achieve very modest gains, with executive purchase decisions captured between large cash holdings, increased Asian competition, and their own poorly performing customers.”

9) “‘Hacktivist’ efforts acquire an important and permanent role in political transparency.”

10) Supply chain security will determine global technology purchases. “Recognition that today’s supply chains are virtually all compromised will lead to plant relocations and a new set of business opportunities for onshore component makers.”

High Frame Rate 3D Version of The Hobbit is Insanely Gorgeous

  • Peter Jackson’s “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” shot in 48-frames-per-second HD, “looks nothing like you’ve ever seen before,” writes Wired. “In the 48-frames-per-second version… Middle-earth in 3D looks so crisp it’s like stepping into the foreground of an insanely gorgeous diorama.”
  • The movie will also be released December 14 in standard 24-frames-per-second, but the HFR 3D version allows for more precise images and smoother 3D action because it doubles the “visual data” and decreases blur during quick camera motions.
  • While the 48-frames-per-second approach is great for action sequences, Wired questions its effectiveness during naturalistic scenes. “The flicker, depth of field and imperfect ‘grain’ that lends character to 35-millimeter film historically fostered a collective dreamlike state for audiences who gathered in the dark to lose themselves in images that were never intended to exactly replicate the ‘real’ world.”
  • “In delivering the kind of high-def detail by which every wrinkle gets full attention, fast frame takes getting used to,” suggests the article. “At times, scenes unfold as if part of an extravagantly well-lit, art-directed reality-based series or soap opera.”
  • The 48-frames-per-second method combined with 3D almost makes the film seem something beyond real, suggests Wired, and definitely takes some adjustment for people used to watching standard film.

CES 2013: Launch.it to Power Startup News from Eureka Park

New York-based startup Launch.it has partnered with the Consumer Electronics Association to create a news platform for exhibitors at the Eureka Park TechZone, the startup innovation section of CES located in The Venetian. “Launch.it will provide a central spot for startups to publish their news and contact information at CES, as well as provide detailed analytics about visitors,” reports VentureBeat.

“Our big vision is a free self-publishing platform to unlock the news,” says Trace Cohen, president and co-founder of Launch.it. “We want to be the biggest searchable database [of news]… almost to disintermediate Google.”

“For its customers, Launch.it offers a bunch of useful features, including: a Wiki-like environment to allow customers to easily update their news, Facebook comments, the ability to buy and test out services, and the ability to let media and investors ‘follow’ companies for instant news updates,” notes the post.

The father and son company powers news sites for 300-400 companies and has partnered with Ultralight Startups and ShowStoppers, which manages product showcase events.

The ETCentric team will be reporting live from CES in January with plans to cover Eureka Park and any relevant news items coming from Launch.it and the CEA.

CES 2013: Will We See Any Notable Audio Tech This Year?

Besides an interesting push for wireless in 2011 with AirPlay adoption and a few compelling Bluetooth-equipped devices, Engadget suggests the Consumer Electronics Show hasn’t seen too much exciting in the audio realm over the last few years. In its preview of CES 2013, the tech blog doesn’t expect anything “exceptionally innovative on a widespread scale,” but notes a few items worth watching.

“You can count on a bigger assortment of wireless solutions, and likely the first big showing of the end of days for the speaker dock — excluding anything that Apple’s Lightning connector might make its way onto,” reports Engadget. “Still, the idea of the dock can live on with additions like Qi inductive charging, as we’ve seen from the likes of JBL and TDK already.”

More celebrity-endorsed headphones are expected, and major companies like Sennheiser will join the fray with headphones “in the $100 to $400 range with street-focused looks and audiophile DNA.”

The Las Vegas Convention Center will include space featuring HiFi audio, “with many boutique brands showing off their latest and best — usually with price tags to make your wallet cringe.”

“What has us really excited, though? We’re hearing talk that transparent speaker technology is poised to make a comeback,” notes the post. “Imagine the shell of your tablet, smartphone or laptop also serving as an essentially invisible speaker. Aside from the prospect of even svelter devices, the tech has the potential to sound miles better than the tinny-sounding speaker drivers most of our gadgets currently use.”

Check back with us in January, when the ETCentric reporting team promises to post any surprises we run across in new audio tech.

CES 2013: CEA Chief Discusses Top Trends Expected in January

Last year’s Consumer Electronics Show broke attendance records, with more than 156,000 people descending upon Las Vegas. This January, the 2013 show is expected to match last year’s attendance and set a new record in terms of show floor space, with more than 1.85 million square feet of booths and exhibits.

“Every day brings more good news. We are bigger than last year, in terms of our footprint. That’s how we measure the size of the show in the trade-show world,” explains Consumer Electronics Association chief exec Gary Shapiro, who anticipates more than 3,300 exhibitors. “The thing I’m really excited about is the startup area,” notes Shapiro. “We did a deal last year for Eureka Park and we thought we’d have 30 companies. We had 100, and this year we have 140.”

Shapiro expects CES to be packed despite Microsoft’s absence. The company has traditionally given the opening keynote to kick off the show, but will be replaced this year by Paul Jacobs, CEO of mobile chip maker Qualcomm.

“That change is symbolic, as Microsoft represented the PC industry, while Qualcomm generates billions on the strength of smartphone and tablet chip sales,” reports VentureBeat.

Anticipated trends include touchscreen, gesture and sensor tech; wireless wallets; Ultra HD 4K TVs; 3D printing and cloud-based services. This year’s show will also feature an increased presence in terms of digital health, green technology and the automotive industry (including connected cars and electric vehicles).

“Another big draw will be anything connected to Apple,” explains VentureBeat. “Apple employees are coming, but Apple traditionally doesn’t exhibit or speak at CES. But the iLounge section devoted to Apple-related products built by other companies is now going to have 440 companies across 120,000 square feet.”

Research Team Develops LCD Display That Fits on Contact Lens

  • Researchers at the Ghent University Centre of Microsystems Technology in Belgium have developed a new contact lens that displays letters and symbols on its lens.
  • “Prior to this point, researchers have only been able to create a LED lens that displays a single pixel,” notes Digital Trends.
  • “However, the technology behind this new development offers the ability to display a large range of pixel sizes as well as a significant volume of pixels on a LCD display.”
  • “Normally, flexible displays using liquid crystal cells are not designed to be formed into a new shape, especially not a spherical one,” explains Professor Herbert De Smet, head researcher on the project. “By using new kinds of conductive polymers and integrating them into a smooth spherical cell, we were able to fabricate a new LCD-based contact lens display.“
  • Conceptually, the lens tech could be used to display scrolling text messages or emails sent to a smartphone, even GPS driving directions. The technology could also enable adaptive lenses that lighten or darken, similar to glasses that feature light-transitioning material.
  • Medical applications might include limiting light access after eye trauma or allowing more light to a damaged eye during the healing process following surgery.

CBS Plans Week-Long Super Bowl Programming Across Platforms

  • In an effort to fully leverage the biggest ratings generator of the year, CBS plans to launch nearly a week’s worth of Super Bowl XLVII programming leading up to the February 3 game in New Orleans.
  • Multiplatform coverage and 15 different shows are planned across CBS News, CBS Sports Network, Showtime, syndication, daytime and late-night.
  • “If you have the biggest event on television, it’s important to maximize that value, not just for the sports division but for the rest of corporation as well,” says Sean McManus, chairman of CBS Sports.
  • “‘CBS This Morning’ will broadcast from New Orleans Thursday through Saturday,” notes The Hollywood Reporter. “‘The CBS Evening News’ with Scott Pelley and ‘CBS Evening News Saturday’ will broadcast from Jackson Square Friday and Saturday.”
  • Additionally, Super Bowl-related programming is planned for shows including “Face the Nation,” “The Talk,” “The Late Late Show,” “Inside the NFL,” “Lead Off,” “Rome” and others.
  • While McManus explained the push will be expensive, “he was quick to point out that CBS will make money on the game — which is nearly sold out of ad inventory at an average cost of $3.8 million for a 30-second spot — up from $3.5 million last year,” reports THR.
  • The Super Bowl has set new ratings records each of the last three years (last year drew more than 111 million viewers). “Of the five most-watched telecasts in TV history, four are Super Bowls,” according to the article.

Yahoo Teams with NBC Sports for Sharing Content, Cross-Promotion

  • Yahoo has deals with CNBC and ABC in order to expand the reach of its news content to millions of viewers. The company recently announced a similar agreement with NBC Sports, which is the first such initiative under the new CEO Marissa Mayer.
  • Yahoo and NBC Sports will cross-promote and share content such as live coverage, Rivals college content, and fantasy sports products.
  • “Though both sites will maintain editorial independence, the partnership will include collaborations on original Web content that will appear on Yahoo Sports and NBCSports.com and will utilize both company’s popular personalities such as NBC’s Bob Costas and Mike Florio and Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel and Adrian Wojnarowski,” notes The Hollywood Reporter. “Yahoo Sports also will link to and promote the NBC Sports Live Extra streaming player.”
  • “And Yahoo Sports will become the exclusive fantasy game provider of NBC Sports’ Rotoworld, while Yahoo Sports’ Rivals.com will power recruiting and college sporting news for NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports Regional Networks,” the article continues.
  • Yahoo says the partnership will help fans access news and analysis in real time, regardless of where they are.
  • “The complementary nature of this partnership is unmatched in digital sports media,” says Mark Lazarus, NBC Sports chairman. “Through our growing television and digital platforms, the Yahoo Sports partnership dramatically expands the digital reach of NBC Sports around the biggest sporting events. We are committed to continually growing this alliance for the benefit of both parties, our sports-property partners, and, most importantly, sports fans.”

Mobile Video Calling Creates New Frontier as Technologies Improve

  • “As the cameras and screens of smartphones and tablets improve, and as wireless networks offer higher bandwidth, more companies are getting into the business of enabling mobile video calls,” reports The New York Times, noting that the rise has been so quick that analysts have yet to compile numbers.
  • In 2011, Microsoft acquired video calling service Skype. Similarly, Apple developed its own FaceTime feature to sell the iPad and in September expanded the service beyond just Wi-Fi to cellular networks.
  • Google’s free video calling service Hangouts on its social network Google Plus allows up to ten people to video conference, and it features more than 200 apps. Just last week, Yahoo purchased its own video chat service OnTheAir. Tango Mobile is yet another video calling service, which has attracted 80 million active users and sees 200,000 join daily, according to CTO and co-founder Eric Setton.
  • Microsoft has incorporated Skype into its Windows 8 mobile phones, allowing people to receive calls even when the app isn’t running. Google is interested in “making money on the applications, but in learning more about them so it can sell more ads by getting people to use [Hangouts],” notes the article.
  • “Don’t expect video calling to improve productivity. Tango uses the same technology that enables video calls to sell games that people can play simultaneously,” the article states. “Google says some jokey applications on Hangouts, like a feature that can put a mustache over each caller, seem to encourage people to talk longer.”
  • “Tango’s average video call used to last six minutes, Mr. Setton said, but when the company started adding other applications to go with the videos, like games and designs that float over people, the average call length rose to 12 minutes.”

Leap Motion Develops Gesture Control to Challenge Touchscreens

  • While computer makers are focused on adding touchscreen capabilities to desktops, Leap Motion has created a $70 matchbox-sized device that adds gesture control to computers, essentially negating the need for touchscreens.
  • The technology uses two small cameras and multiple infrarad LEDs to track the motion of a person’s fingers with an accuracy of a hundredth of a millimeter, Technology Review reports. The second camera is used to prevent errors from a hand obscuring itself. All the processing is done by a drive software installed on the computer.
  • According to Leap Motion co-founder and CEO Michael Buckwald, “Leap provides the solution to ‘gorilla arm,’ a term used to describe the dubious ergonomics of a person repeatedly lifting his or her hands from the keyboard or mouse and reaching out to operate a computer’s touch screen,” the article states. “Users of Leap’s device can lift their hands just slightly off the keyboard and make more economic gestures with their fingers.”
  • “If you’re controlling a cursor [with Leap], you don’t have to move one-to-one with the screen, like you do with touch,” says Buckwald, so small motions translate to larger movements on screen, making interaction faster than using a mouse and keyboard.
  • “We’re working with lots of consumer OEMs and for laptops but also automotive and medical companies,” he adds. In the future, the technology will be applied to mobile devices as well as new technology such as head-mounted displays. Leap Motion anticipates the technology will one day enable complex 3D interactions.
  • Pre-production versions of the device have been sent to developers who have created various applications for the interface, including a aircraft game and photo-browsing program. The post includes an impressive video featuring these uses and others.

Malware Shift: Android Overtakes Windows as Top Security Threat

  • In the 2013 Security Threat Report from security firm Sophos, it’s been revealed that Android is now the top market for hackers, beating out previous frontrunner Microsoft’s Windows OS.
  • “The security firm found that during a three-month period this year, 10 percent of Android-based devices experienced some form of malware attack. Just 6 percent of Windows PCs, meanwhile, were hit by an attack,” according to Technology Review.
  • Cybercriminals understand more than ever that the technological future is in mobile, making this an issue of high concern considering over 100 million Android devices shipped worldwide in the second quarter of 2012, notes the report.
  • Because Android is fairly new, especially when compared to Windows OS, users are not yet conditioned to security concerns and will click on links or open unknown apps.
  • “To make matters worse, the anti-malware tools available in the Android ecosystem just aren’t as strong as they could be,” explains the article. “Security firms are behind the times a bit. And until they catch up, we’re all at risk.”
  • According to the Saphos report, in order to stay safe, users should only surf the Web to known sites and should not download anything that could be dangerous.

Tim Cook Says Apple Will Return Some Mac Production to U.S.

  • Apple CEO Tim Cook announced the company plans to bring Macintosh computer production from China to the States. The move, Reuters suggests, could serve as an “important test of the nascent comeback in U.S. electronics manufacturing.”
  • “Apple makes the majority of its products, from Macs to the iPhone and iPad, in China, the world’s factory floor for electronics. But like other U.S. corporations, it has come under fire for relying on low-cost Asian labor and contributing to the decline of the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the article states.
  • Apple will spend more than $100 million on the U.S. manufacturing project, according to Cook. He wouldn’t say which Macintosh products will be produced in the U.S., but said only one of the existing Mac product lines would be manufactured exclusively here.
  • “Also, while cheaper labor costs have been a key factor in encouraging U.S. manufacturers to move production to China,” notes Reuters, “wages and other costs have risen sharply — particularly in the main coastal manufacturing centers. Labor costs, moreover, account for only a tiny portion of overall expenses.”
  • Another added benefit to moving production to the U.S. is reducing the risk of intellectually property theft.
  • The company’s shares have been consistently dropping since September in light of intensifying competition from Google’s Android products, analysts say.
  • “Apple’s domestic manufacturing effort will likely buy the brand some goodwill at home, where the debate about off-shoring has heated up as the economy sputters along,” explains the article. “Beyond the marketing boost, some analysts said Apple could blaze a trail should it prove that American manufacturing of electronics can be profitable.”

T-Mobile Announces it Will Carry iPhone and Eliminate Subsidies

  • Starting next year, T-Mobile will begin offering Apple products, including the iPhone, but CEO John Legere says the company will make customers buy the phones themselves.
  • “T-Mobile is eliminating all device subsidies in 2013, requiring new customers to pay full price for their phones up front, buy it on installment or bring their own unlocked devices,” writes GigaOM.
  • “T-Mobile will shift entirely to its unsubsidized Value Plans, which offer customers far cheaper rates for voice and particular data,” the article continues. “Traditionally carriers factor subsidies into their normal contracts rates — basically you’re paying a mortgage on your phone. With the Value program, T-Mobile is keeping the contract, but passing what it saves on subsidies back to the consumer.”
  • Eighty percent of T-Mobile’s activations in the last quarter were value plans, signaling a strong demand for the model. However, the unsubsidized price of the iPhone 5 is between $650 and $850; the phone’s popularity is largely due to carrier subsidies, so T-Mobile could face a hurdle convincing customers.
  • “T-Mobile will have to explain to customers that they will actually save money over the length of a two-year contract by paying a lower value plan rate,” notes the post.
  • “Legere said that T-Mobile would offer the iPhone in a unique way. He implied that T-Mobile could heavily finance the device, selling it for $99 and then charging $15 to $20 a month in payments over 20 months. That kind of financing plan, however, would look very much like a subsidized contract plan to the customer.”

Battling Data Brokers: Reputation.com Builds Data Privacy Vault

  • “‘Information resellers,’ also known as ‘data brokers,’ have collected hundreds to thousands of details — what we buy, our race or ethnicity, our finances and health concerns, our Web activities and social networks — on almost every American adult,” reports The New York Times, highlighting one startup, Reputation.com, that wants to help Internet users escape the surveillance economy.
  • In addition to data brokers, there are companies that rank consumers using computer algorithms “to covertly score Internet users, identifying some as ‘high-value’ consumers… while dismissing others as a waste of time and marketing money. Yet another type of company, called an ad-trading platform, profiles Internet users and auctions off online access to them to marketers in a practice called ‘real-time bidding.'”
  • These new methods have spurred investigations from Congress and federal agencies, but they are legal — for now.
  • “As the popular conversation shifts from practices like privacy policies and opt-outs to ideas like consumer empowerment and data rights, however, marketing industry efforts have not kept pace with changing public attitudes, analysts say.”
  • “Consumers are leaving an exponentially growing digital footprint across channels and media, and they are awakening to the fact that marketers use this data for financial gain,” says Fatemeh Khatibloo, a Forrester analyst, who adds, “individuals increasingly want to know when data about them is being collected, what is being stored and by whom, and how that data is being used.”
  • Reputation.com thinks it has the solution. “For $99 per year, clients can have the company remove their personal details from databases maintained by various information resellers. They can also install company software that blocks Web tracking by 200 data brokers, advertising networks and ad trading platforms.”
  • The company’s data privacy vault, scheduled to open early next year, is designed to help consumers with their personal identity management. The data vault will serve as an authorization supervisor that manages the permissions marketers would need to access information about individuals.

Trends for 2013: Internet of Things, The Cloud, Big Data and More

David Alan Grier, professor at George Washington University and president-elect for the IEEE Computer Society, suggests five ways the computing world will change in the coming year.

1) “New companies and applications will bring the long-held vision of the Internet of Things closer to reality,” Grier writes for Forbes. By 2020, there will be an estimated 100 billion Internet-connected objects, triggering “an explosion of new uses by consumers and enterprises alike,” he predicts. “New types of sensors, new ways of connecting devices, and new strategies for embedded computing must be rolled out to bring IoT’s vision to the forefront.”

2) “Visualization and analytics will help solve the challenges of big data.” More and more data is collected and generated than ever before, but analyzing big data has become a significant challenge. Federal agencies and large corporations have launched research programs to address the problem of overwhelming or quickly outdated data.

3) “Enterprises will deploy hybrid clouds and consumers will embrace personal clouds.” Looking for energy-saving green approaches, companies will increase the demand for cloud computing; cloud interoperability and standards will also advance.

4) “The battle over Internet censorship and control will reach new heights,” Grier writes. “In 2013, expect to see these battles continuing, in the form of Internet filtering versus circumvention, surveillance versus anonymization, denial-of-service attacks and intrusion attempts versus protection mechanisms, and on- and offline persecution and defense of online activists.”

5) “Researchers and companies will develop new tools and approaches to help unleash the power of multicore computing,” which will be a “critical priority” in the age of parallel processing.