Global VOD: Web-Based TV Revenue to Overtake Terrestrial by 2012

  • According to a new report from London-based Direct TV Research Ltd., worldwide revenues from video-on-demand movies and TV shows will top $5.7 billion in 2016.
  • These 2016 projections represent a 58 percent increase from 2010 global revenues of $3.6 billion.
  • Internet-based television revenue is expected to overtake that of digital terrestrial TV by 2012.
  • The U.S., Italy and China are projected to be the top three VOD markets.
  • Simon Murray, author of the report, points out there is minimal evidence free VOD offerings will drive transactions. “There is little evidence to suggest that these free services actually encourage subscribers to pay for on-demand titles,” Murray wrote. “In fact, it may be harder to convince households to pay for on-demand services if they have become accustomed to receiving free on-demand titles.”

Update: Apple Considering a Bid for Hulu Video Service

  • In the latest installment of the ongoing Hulu saga, Bloomberg reports Apple is “considering making a bid” for the online video service.
  • Apple would join Google, Yahoo, AT&T and others who have expressed interest (Microsoft has reportedly dropped out of the bidding).
  • With $76 billion in cash and securities, an expected $2 billion bid would not be too difficult for Apple. If so, analysts suggest this would give Apple a leading subscription service that would rival, if not surpass, the Netflix service.
  • “Part of the ecosystem of Apple’s future is to include more video,” said Scott Sutherland, Wedbush Securities analyst (who recommends buying the stock). “It’s something they are focused on.”

Update: Microsoft Drops Out of Auction for Hulu Service

  • Microsoft has reportedly dropped out of the bidding for Hulu and would not continue into a second round, according to “a person with knowledge of the matter.” (Although the individual did not rule out the possibility of Microsoft re-entering in a later round.)
  • Google, Yahoo, AT&T and as many as eight other companies remain interested in the online video service.
  • According to Business Insider, Yahoo is willing to spend up to $2 billion if it can get content rights for the next four or five years.
  • It has been reported that Hulu plans to offer five years of access to content from its media company owners (Disney, News Corp. and Comcast’s NBC Universal), including two years of exclusivity.

Blockbuster Targets Frustrated Netflix Subscribers

  • ETCentric recently reported on the backlash to new Netflix subscription rates (see “Nine Video Streaming and Rental Alternatives to Netflix”).
  • Most of the nine rental alternatives referenced in the earlier post are currently offering special introductory offers.
  • According to this related article however, Blockbuster is now offering a free 30-day trial specifically to disgruntled Netflix customers unhappy with the recent price hike.
  • If customers decide to switch, they’ll pay a comparable monthly subscription fee (Blockbuster points out that they offer video games and newer releases than Netflix).
  • Blockbuster’s special Netflix promotion runs until September 15.

Nine Video Streaming and Rental Alternatives to Netflix

  • As previously reported on ETCentric, Netflix announced plans this week to divide its unlimited-DVDs-by-mail and unlimited-streaming options into two separate plans.
  • The resulting 60 percent price increase (from $9.99 to $15.99 per month for both DVD and streaming), effective September 1 for existing customers, has raised some early controversy with Netflix subscribers and the press.
  • For those who may be looking to opt out of Netflix due to the new price structure, Geek.com has posted a helpful overview of viable alternatives including: Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus, Blockbuster by Mail, Walmart’s VUDU, YouTube Rentals, CinemaNow, GreenCine, Redbox and Google.
  • Amazon Prime, for example, now offers a streaming video service available for $79 per year (or $6.58 a month), while the growing library of movies and TV programs on Hulu Plus ($7.99 per month) is available on multiple platforms including PCs, game consoles, and set-top boxes.
  • VUDU works with computers, the PS3, Boxee, Blu-ray players and connected TVs. Its customers pay $2 for a two-day rental, while YouTube fans can pay $1.99 to $3.99 for streaming rentals. The company has partnered with Sony, Warner Brothers, Universal, Lionsgate and others to provide content via YouTube accounts on computers, Google TV, Android tablets with Honeycomb, and most Android phones.
  • Check out Geek.com for details on all nine options listed.

Netflix Announces Content Deal with NBCUniversal

  • On the heels of raising eyebrows regarding increased subscription rates, Netflix offered some good news yesterday when it announced it has renewed its licensing agreement with NBCUniversal.
  • The multi-year agreement includes TV shows such as “The Office” and “30 Rock” in addition to cable programs “Keeping Up with the Kardashians” and “Kimora: Life in the Fab Lane” (future seasons will be available on a one-season delay basis).
  • Streaming access to Universal films such as “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” and “The Motorcycle Diaries” has also been added.
  • “The content buying spree has purportedly been pricey, but Netflix maintains that it will pay for the new shows it acquires rights to by gradually moving customers away from its mail service.”

Netflix Launches Unlimited DVD Rental Plan

  • In what appears to be a slight departure in strategy, Netflix announced it is offering an unlimited DVD rental plan for those who want to avoid streaming content.
  • Subscribers can now pay $7.99 per month for unlimited DVD rentals under the new offering.
  • Prior to this plan, Netflix subscribers had a choice of “$4.99 a month for one DVD out at a time (up to two a month) or $9.99 a month for one DVD out at a time with access to Netflix Instant.”
  • This model may surprise some, considering CEO Reed Hastings has been touting streaming delivery of late, highlighting the fact that subscribers were accessing more streaming content than physical media for the first time in his company’s history.
  • It may also be surprising to some since the streaming service recently became the largest source of Internet traffic and the company is planning to produce exclusive online content.

Yahoo Study: More People Watching Online Video During Primetime

  • According to a new study by Yahoo, people are watching more and longer videos during primetime.
  • Back in 2009, online viewing declined as more people watched video on their TVs.
  • More consumers are watching Netflix and Hulu during primetime, but short clips still comprise 74 percent of video viewed.
  • Viewers are more likely (57 percent) to watch video when presented with a related article.

We Should Expect 50 TV Everywhere Initiatives by July 2011

  • According to research and consulting firm Parks Associates, global pay TV providers are expected to have nearly 50 TV Everywhere initiatives underway by July, marking a major increase since the initiatives began in 2009.
  • Home Media Magazine reports that the ability of new tablets and smartphones to handle streaming video – in addition to the emerging growth of connected devices in the home – is helping to drive the trend.
  • “What’s remarkable is the pace of the growth,” said Brett Sappington, a senior analyst with Parks Associates. “Traditionally, operators are not quick to invest in this type of thing.”
  • It is projected that by next month, 81 percent of U.S. pay TV subscribers will have access to content on multiple devices.
  • In terms of how consumers are using TV Everywhere initiatives so far, Sappington reports that VOD is clearly outpacing live TV streaming (most likely due to the clear-cut rights operators have with VOD).

Average YouTube Viewer Watches 5 Hours of Videos per Month

  • According to comScore’s May 2011 online video rankings, the average U.S. Internet user watched almost 16 hours of video last month.
  • The report indicates the total U.S. audience engaged in more than 5.6 billion viewing sessions during May, while 83.3 percent viewed online video.
  • Not surprisingly, Google’s YouTube was was the leading video site (again) with 147.2 million unique viewers, and an average of five hours spent per viewer on the site.
  • VEVO followed YouTube with 60.4 million viewers, Yahoo had 55.5 million viewers, and Facebook took the fourth spot with 48.2 million viewers.
  • Hulu had the highest number of video ad impressions at more than 1.3 billion.
  • The average length of online video content was 5.2 minutes.

Next-Gen Animators Adopt Online Model

  • YouTube’s profit-sharing Partner Program enables animators to be their own bosses, reach out directly to potential audiences while enjoying a cut of the traffic.
  • So far, approximately 20,000 program participants have gained hundreds of thousands of subscribers and tens of millions of monthly views.
  • For the more successful, this has translated into incomes in the high six figures.
  • In addition to becoming a viable platform for earning, the program serves as a launching pad for emerging talent (companies are perusing the YouTube content as a means of recruiting).
  • “It’s been a huge game-changer,” says Aaron Simpson, VP of animation and business development for Mondo Media. “Profit sharing had been done a bit before on some websites, but not on the huge scale that YouTube allows.”

Netflix Leads Downstream Internet Traffic in North America

A new report from Ontario-based Sandvine indicates Netflix video streaming content currently accounts for the single greatest source of peak downstream Internet traffic in the U.S. (recently reported as 29.7 percent, up from 21 percent last fall).

According to TechCrunch: “That puts Netflix above HTTP websites (18 percent), BitTorrent (11 percent), and YouTube (10 percent) as a source of downstream traffic during peak times in North America. (BitTorrent still accounts for half of all upstream traffic). As whole, ‘real-time entertainment’ (which is mostly video streaming, but also includes streaming music) accounted for 49 percent of downstream traffic in March 2011, versus 19 percent for P2P file sharing, and 17 percent for Web browsing.”

The Global Internet Phenomena Report: Spring 2011 from Sandvine also offers the following observations:

  • Real-Time Entertainment traffic is continuing its journey to network dominance, particularly in North America, where it represents 49.2% of peak period fixed access traffic. If this rate of growth is sustained, Real-Time Entertainment will make up 55-60% of traffic by the end of the year.
  • The continued growth of Real-Time Entertainment enables a seemingly contradictory conclusion: P2P Filesharing is here to stay, at least for the immediate future, as evidenced by the marginal drop in share from 19.2% of peak period traffic in Fall 2010 to 18.8% in Spring 2011.
  • The composition of upstream traffic on Latin America’s mobile networks has changed dramatically since the previous study. P2P Filesharing has supplanted Real-Time Entertainment to become the largest consumer of upstream capacity, accounting for 46.4% of uploaded bytes.
  • Europe’s networks reflect rapidly shifting user preferences. Levels of P2P Filesharing and Web Browsing traffic have changed dramatically since 2009, with no consistent trend appearing. Nevertheless, an important exception in this dynamic market is the Real-Time Entertainment category, which continues to grow steadily.

Related Bloomberg article: “Netflix Offers Streaming Movies on Google Android Phones” (5/12/11)

YouTube Adds 3,000 Titles to Streaming Movie Rental Service

YouTube is going Hollywood with its new streaming VOD service that may provide some competition to services from the likes of iTunes, Hulu and Netflix. YouTube Movies now offers current mainstream features in addition to trailers, reviews, alternate endings, behind-the-scenes specials, cast interviews, and other extras. (You can browse current titles and check out the interface at the YouTube Movies page.)

This may prove to be a big move for Google (YouTube’s parent company), which no doubt hopes consumers will use Google TV (with updated Android 3.1 this summer) to stream rented movies. YouTube has been renting and offering movies for free with ads for more than a year, but the titles have been less than current.

According to the FAQ section of the company’s press release, YouTube has added approximately 3,000 new titles, “including catalog and new releases from Sony Pictures, Warner Bros, NBC Universal, Lionsgate Films and many great independent studios. This brings the total number of movie titles available to rent on YouTube to over 6,000.”

Viewers will have 30 days to begin watching a rental and, in most cases, will have up to 24 hours to complete viewing.

Engadget reports: “The pricing is $2.99/$3.99 for movies viewable via PC or Google TV (no other device support is mentioned) and the FAQ notes that YouTube supports resolutions up to 4K but ‘most’ of the new additions are sadly in SD, a choice which is apparently up to its partners.”

YouTube is betting that consumers are ready for a change in their viewing habits. Head of YouTube, Salar Kamangar writes on the company’s blog: “You’re finding more and more of the content you love on YouTube, which is now available on 350 million devices. We know this because you’re watching videos to the tune of 2 billion views a day. But you’re spending just 15 minutes a day on YouTube, and spending five hours a day watching TV. As the lines between online and offline continue to blur, we think that’s going to change.”

Related Engadget post (including YouTube press release and FAQ): “YouTube adds 3,000 movies for rental from Universal, Sony, Warner Bros.” (5/9/11)

Related article from TheWrap: “YouTube Finally Goes Hollywood With New Movies on Demand Service” (4/25/11)

Related article from TheWrap: “Mark Cuban: YouTube Can Change the World, But It Can’t Make Money Streaming” (4/14/11)

Premium VOD: New Distribution Model from DirecTV?

The nation’s No.1 and No. 2 satellite TV providers may be looking for new ways to provide movies to consumers. Dish Network (No. 2) recently purchased the assets of bankrupt Blockbuster for $320 million and may use the company’s online streaming service to take on video rental enterprises such as Netflix.

Meanwhile, DirecTV (No.1) is reportedly in talks with Hollywood studios regarding a new movie rental service that would provide $30 rentals just two months after films’ theatrical releases. Studios that are looking to combat slumping DVD sales believe that some consumers, especially families, may be willing to pay the higher fee for access to titles prior to their availability on DVD or from services such as Netflix.

Analysts explain that movie studios are open to new online streaming or pay-per-view models in order to recoup revenue from declining DVD purchases. We may also see $30 premium movie-on-demand offerings from cable firms such as Comcast and Time Warner Cable.

Related TVPredictions.com post: “DirecTV to Offer $30 VOD Next Week?” (4/15/11)

Related Engadget post: “DirecTV, Comcast, Vudu could start offering premium VOD $30 movie rentals in April” (3/31/11)

Digital Distribution: Is it Time to Redefine Cinema?

The New York Times offers an interesting perspective regarding how digital technologies have impacted the production, distribution, marketing and exhibition of contemporary movies. The article addresses a compelling focus in terms of how the communal aspect of viewing film is facing a dramatic cultural shift and how filmgoing has become less of a group experience. Have we reached a new milestone that may require us to redefine the term “cinema” — and, if so, what does this mean for the business of filmmaking?

The article cites the fact that theater attendance has declined in the U.S. from 90 million a week in 1948 to approximately 23 million today. Of course, the 1948 audience did not have Blu-ray, on-demand, cable movie channels, streaming services and an array of new technologies that enable today’s “24-hour movie.”

Technological innovation has led to cultural evolution regarding the traditional cinema experience. For many consumers, experiencing a movie is no longer about the anticipation of a release, the social environment created by sitting in a darkened theater with a date or a friend (and a group of strangers), or the “communal laughter, tears, gasps and heckling that become part of our memories.” For many (perhaps most), the experience is now more about clicking a button — and what has become a more personalized, immediate dynamic based on consumption-on-demand that technologies enable.

If the 24-hour movie continues to impact the demands and expectations of the movie-viewing public, will this require us to rethink how we produce, exhibit and market our content?