Opinion: Will Mobile Devices Eventually Replace the Big Screen TV?

  • In this opinion piece published on CNET, freelance writer Steve Guttenberg predicts that iPads and other tablet devices will eventually make having a large screen TV a thing of the past.
  • “By 2020 younger people who will have grown up with tablets won’t see a need to ever buy a big display, which will by then seem as obtrusive as a pair of 4-foot-tall tower speakers do to most buyers nowadays,” he suggests.
  • For the naysayers, Guttenberg cites audio technology as an example. Twenty years ago, it was hard to imagine that most consumers would be less concerned about a set of quality speakers and more interested in portability or personalization. Yet that’s where we’ve landed.
  • “With music, everyone except for a handful of audiophiles, listens in their cars, computer, or on iPod,” he writes. “A home hi-fi of any quality now seems irrelevant; the same fate is in the cards for TVs. They will start to look too big, too imposing for the room’s decor.”
  • This is interesting to consider now, as tablet sales are taking off in the consumer market. Will mobile devices such as the tablet kill TV?
  • Guttenberg believes we are heading in that direction: “There will always be a market for big TVs, just as there is for great audio, but big-screen sales will continue to shrink over time. Most people will be perfectly content to watch movies and sports on their iPads.”

Study: 300 Percent Growth in Mobile App Downloads Expected for 2011

  • Mobile analytics firm Flurry has released new estimates based on iOS and Android app-enabled devices.
  • According to the report, 25 billion apps will be downloaded in 2011, marking 300 percent growth from last year’s six billion.
  • Five billion Apple and Android apps are expected to be downloaded in December alone, based on the surge typically associated with mobile shopping and people on break looking for entertainment.
  • Revenue from the U.S. market will reach $2.5 billion, compared with 2010’s $1 billion.
  • The increase in app catalogs has helped the increase. iOS offers about 500,000 apps and Android is around 350,000.
  • ReadWriteWeb also points out that only 43 percent of U.S. consumers currently have smartphones, but the number is expected to reach 50 percent by Q3 2012, which will also fuel app downloads.

Apple Forecast: Will iPhone 4S Lead to 60 Percent of Industry Profits?

  • According to Canaccord Genuity analysis of Apple’s third quarter, the company “captured more than half of the handset industry’s overall operating profits — 52 percent…And it managed it with only a 4.2 percent global handset unit market share,” reports The Wall Street Journal.
  • “With the iPhone, Apple is doing to the smartphone business what it has done to the PC business with the Mac: Generating a disproportionate share of profits relative to revenue,” suggests the article.
  • With other manufacturers faltering and iPhone 4S sales soaring, Apple may hit 60 percent of the industry’s operating profits soon.
  • According to AllThingsD: “…with the iPhone 4S the top-selling smartphone at AT&T, Sprint and Verizon, and its international rollout in full swing, it seems pretty clear Apple has a very good chance of hitting that big number — and soon.”

2012 Forecast: What Should We Expect of Streaming, Cable and TV?

  • Television’s future remains murky as content providers and cable companies get ready for battle, and streaming services continue to gain momentum.
  • “But change is going to come, and amid news that Google is interested in entering the cable TV business and continued rumors that Apple will be releasing its own branded television set, we also have to wonder what’s going to happen with streaming services like Hulu and Netflix,” reports Digital Trends.
  • The article suggests it is the cable companies that have the most to worry about (those that control the last model). “Forget applications having a say in all this: The real war is going to be fought between cable networks and the content providers that want to move on to a new format.”
  • “Farther off, I think [YouTube] will challenge Hulu first. Netflix is more like a library. Google is a beast and you have to keep an eye on those guys,” TalkPoint CEO Nick Balletta says. “They have the muscle and cash to weather the storm.”
  • Balletta believes adoption of connected TVs will take root by late 2012, and before then we’ll see significant fragmentation before we can truly cut the cord.

Mary Meeker Offers Updated Analysis During Web 2.0 Summit Presentation

  • At the recent Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco, Mary Meeker updated her Internet Trends analysis that she has presented for the past eight years. Meeker is a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and was formerly managing director and research analyst at Morgan Stanley.
  • Meeker offered some compelling data this year (the ReadWriteWeb post features some great trend charts and statistics). Highlights include:
  • Globality — China’s Internet users add up to almost twice the number of U.S. users.
  • Mega-Trend — Empowering people worldwide with mobile devices.
  • 55 percent of Twitter traffic and 33 percent of Facebook traffic comes from mobile devices.
  • User Interface — Touch, sound and movement is the new UI.
  • 85 percent of world’s population now covered by commercial wireless signals.
  • Smartphones and tablets outshipped PCs (notebooks and desktops) in Q4 2010.
  • Mobile apps and advertising has been growing 153 percent/year over past four years.
  • Social networking time is surpassing portal times.

Forty-One Percent of Enterprises Block Access for Employee-Owned Macs

  • Ars Technica reports: “Forty-one percent of enterprises do not allow employee-owned Macs access to any company resources, even Web-based e-mail, according to the results of a new Forrester survey of IT executives at North American and European companies.”
  • Some companies will offer a stipend to employees to buy Macs if they prefer, but the enterprise seems to stay away because of higher prices and ingrained IT Microsoft traditions.
  • Forrester suggests that productivity is linked with the freedom to choose personal computers. Many employees prefer the “uncluttered Macs — especially those with solid-state drives, which are more responsive and boot in seconds,” according to Forrester analyst David Johnson.
  • Problems arise with the need for Mac-specific management software and file sharing, but Johnson points out tech departments that stand in the way “will eventually get run over.”

Real-Time Entertainment Traffic: Have We Entered a Post-PC Era?

  • According to the new “Global Internet Phenomena Report” from broadband solutions provider Sandvine, North Americans have officially embraced the “post-PC” era.
  • The report suggests that for the first time, U.S. consumers are using their gaming consoles, smartphones and tablets more than PCs for entertainment.
  • “[We have] entered a post-PC era, in which the majority of real-time entertainment traffic on North America’s fixed access networks is destined for devices other than a laptop or desktop computer,” Sandvine reports. “Game consoles, settop boxes, smart TVs, tablets, and mobile devices being used within the home combine to receive 55 percent of all real-time entertainment traffic.”
  • Interesting stats from the “Beyond Bytes” infographic: 96 percent of broadband subscribers use real-time entertainment each month, 83 percent of broadband users access YouTube videos each month (compared to 20 percent for Netflix), and real-time entertainment as a percentage of peak period downstream traffic has doubled since 2009.

Global VOD: Web-Based TV Revenue to Overtake Terrestrial by 2012

  • According to a new report from London-based Direct TV Research Ltd., worldwide revenues from video-on-demand movies and TV shows will top $5.7 billion in 2016.
  • These 2016 projections represent a 58 percent increase from 2010 global revenues of $3.6 billion.
  • Internet-based television revenue is expected to overtake that of digital terrestrial TV by 2012.
  • The U.S., Italy and China are projected to be the top three VOD markets.
  • Simon Murray, author of the report, points out there is minimal evidence free VOD offerings will drive transactions. “There is little evidence to suggest that these free services actually encourage subscribers to pay for on-demand titles,” Murray wrote. “In fact, it may be harder to convince households to pay for on-demand services if they have become accustomed to receiving free on-demand titles.”

Internet TV More Popular than 3D TV, 3D Jump Expected by 2015

  • Only 2 percent of U.S. homes will have a 3D TV by year’s end, and the market is expected to only improve slightly to 5 percent penetration in 2012.
  • However, SNL Kagan reports that these figures will jump to 21 percent in 2015.
  • Internet-enabled TVs are currently more popular, projected to go from 14 percent penetration this year to 51 percent in 2015.
  • The report also concludes that a lack of 3D content has been a problem thus far, but growing interest in 3D sports and films should help sustain the technology in the future.