The Future of 3D Looks Bright, According to New Studies

It should come as no surprise to our audience that industry opinions regarding 3D entertainment are mixed. Despite technological advancements we’ve seen in recent years to gaming, theatrical film exhibition, television sets, production processes and a variety of consumer products — a number of significant questions continue to spark debate: Glasses or glasses-free? Active or passive? Standard feature or gimmick? Strong or slow consumer adoption? However, a number of recent studies agree on one thing — the near future of 3D will see some tremendous growth.

In a report released this week, digital entertainment market researcher In-Stat predicts global 3D TV shipments will be up nearly 500 percent this year, compared with 2010. The report also suggests that all televisions with screen sizes 40 inches and above will soon be 3D-enabled. The In-Stat forecast is joined by another report from NPD Group subsidiary DisplaySearch that suggests 3D TVs will account for approximately one-third of all 120 Hz LCD sets in 2011. DisplaySearch also explained that 3D TV penetration will expand as the 3D feature is added to more basic models in upcoming years. Researcher IHS iSuppli adds that 2012 will be another year of triple-digit growth for 3D TV shipments.

“In a major recalibration effort, television brands are changing strategies this year following lukewarm response to 3D in 2010 when consumers balked at the high price of sets and the lack of 3D content,” explained Riddhi Patel, director for television systems and retail services at IHS. “In 2011, however, brands are marketing 3D not as a must-have technology but as a desirable feature, similar to the approach they have taken with Internet connectivity.”

This week’s In-Stat report offers the following numbers:

  • Households with 3D TV sets will eclipse 300 million in 2015.
  • In 2011 Europe will boast the most 3D TV unit shipments at just over 7 million.
  • By 2015 Asia/Pacific will have the largest share of 3D TV unit shipments at 32 percent.

Additionally, an industry survey recently conducted by crew booking and payroll company Media Services indicates that 3D is becoming a “predominant mode of production” — as nearly half of respondents indicated their businesses will emphasize 3D film and television production in the next five years.

The question regarding consumer adoption may soon be impacted by increased production numbers and lower prices from manufacturers (and if the shipment predictions above prove accurate, it may not matter). As CNET reports, “NPD found that 45 percent of people who won’t buy a 3D TV cite price as the barrier and 42 percent say its the special 3D glasses. But as In-Stat’s study has found, consumers may not have much of a choice. Vendors are continuing to add 3D capability, especially to bigger-screen sets. And if folks want bigger screens, they will soon get 3D capability whether they seek it or not.”

Related Below the Line post: “Study Reveals Shift to 3D Over the Next Five Years” (5/17/11)

Related Advanced Television article: “3D TV shipments up 500% in 2011” (5/6/11)

Related TV Technology post: “RealD, Samsung Partner in 3DTV Display Project” (5/17/11)

Related Engadget post (and videos): “Intel will mass produce 3D transistors for all future CPUs, starting with 22nm Ivy Bridge” (5/4/11)

Related PCMag.com article: “3D Transistors, EUV, and the Future of Chipmaking: Why it Matters” (5/6/11)

Yahoo Acquires IntoNow Social TV App Three Months after Launch

In February, ETCentric reported on Palo Alto start-up IntoNow, which had developed an iOS app that identifies and tags live TV shows in realtime, creating something similar to Shazam, but for television rather than radio. Just three months after the social TV app’s official launch, Yahoo announced it had purchased IntoNow. Although the exact transaction numbers were not disclosed, most reports place it in the $13-17 million range.

Here’s how it works: Users press a button on the app interface while viewing a television program and, with the aid of a platform called SoundPrint, the app uses the program’s audio for identification (within 4-12 seconds). The results appear on the iPhone or iPad screen and can be shared via social networking entities such as Facebook or Twitter, or can be added to a Netflix queue. (An Android version is reportedly in development.)

Yahoo is expected to integrate IntoNow’s SoundPrint technology with existing services such as its Connected TV platform — and possibly use it for plans regarding audio watermarks for identifying advertisements and displaying additional information.

According to the Yahoo press release: “The addition of IntoNow will enable Yahoo! to provide enhanced media experiences and video programming, bolstering its social engagement across the Yahoo! network and on all screens. IntoNow users are able to easily engage with friends around the shows they enjoy most. IntoNow helps people discover new shows, discuss favorites with friends and learn more about them, and provides recommendations for what is currently airing based on their interests and those they are connected to. The application is also integrated with Facebook, Twitter, iTunes and Netflix to enable more sharing and information gathering.”

Engadget posted a video demo where the user is watching CNN on a laptop (place-shifted via SlingBox), and uses the IntoNow app on an iPad to identify the TV stream.

Related Engadget post (including Yahoo press release): “Yahoo buys TV companion app developer IntoNow and its database of sounds” (4/25/11)

Generation M2: Children Leading the Transition to Digital Media

According to Business Insider, “kids are leading the world’s transition to digital media” — and if we want to stay in step with the latest (or emerging) media consumption trends, we’ll need to pay close attention to what children are doing. The Kaiser Family Foundation has released the results of a comprehensive survey of more than 2,000 families. The report features some compelling information regarding the media consumption habits of 8-18 year olds — in addition to some pattern changes that have evolved since 1999.

The survey indicates a number of interesting trends that may impact the future of media delivery, such as: TVs remain on during meals in 2/3 of households, TVs are on when no one is actively watching them in 3/4 of households, only 1/3 of households have media-consumption rules, and more than 70 percent of kids have TVs in their bedrooms.

Not surprisingly, children are consuming less print media and much more digital media (and they are increasingly consuming multiple forms of media simultaneously).

Additional statistics:

  • TV viewing by platform in a typical day: Live TV (59%), Mobile (12%), DVD (12%), Online (9%), On Demand/DVR (8%).
  • Recreational computer time in a typical day: Social Networking (25%), Playing Games (19%), Video Sites (16%), Instant Messaging (13%), Email (6%).
  • Music consumption by platform in a typical day: 29 percent iPod, 23 percent Computer, 23 percent Radio, 12 percent CD, 12 percent Cell Phone.

Click here to access the complete Kaiser Family Foundation report and related information including a news release, podcast, webcast and more.

Click here to flip through the Kaiser Family Foundation slide presentation of charts and related information posted by Business Insider.

Samsung: Consumers Embrace 3D TV, Need More 3D Content

IPTV News interviews Vassilis Seferidis, director of business development at Samsung Electronics, in this interesting article regarding the direction of 3D TV. Based on recent market growth and the update of 3D TV channel subscriptions, Seferidis believes consumers have no hesitation in enthusiastically adopting 3D TV. He adds that the fundamental obstacle in moving forward at this point is the availability of 3D content.

In terms of technological progress at Samsung, Seferidis comments, “For our 2011 TV line-up we have introduced a series of 3D TV innovations including: new lightweight active 3D glasses with better shutter synchronization for better separation of the two stereo channels; wireless (induction-based) re-charging station for 3D glasses; the ability to add prescription inserts to your 3D glasses (similar to those used in diving goggles); and improved processing of the 3D video signal on the TV panel for a better separation and presentation of each stereo channel.”

Seferidis is slated to deliver a presentation in mid-May at the 3DTV World Forum in London’s Thistle Marble Arch Hotel.

Yoostar Connects Movie Karaoke and Social Networking

The movie karaoke game, Yoostar 2 is designed to put players in scenes from their favorite movies and TV shows, enabling them to “perform” with professional actors. Users can then post the resulting video clips on the Yoostar web site, or social networking sites such as Facebook and Myspace. Yoostar 2 for the Xbox 360 Kinect and PlayStation Move was released last month.

The connectivity between gaming and social networking could mark the first step toward an experiment that might soften the tension amongst developers in the two arenas.

Scott Steinberg writes in a Mashable post: “You can seamlessly upload video performances online via PlayStation Network or Xbox Live right to social networks, where others can vote, bestow Internet fame and follow your antics. Using the service, it’s not only possible to share viral videos of you doing your best impression of Marlon Brando in ‘The Godfather’ via Facebook and Twitter. You can also earn rewards that unlock content in the disc-based console versions of the game.”

In an era where major game publishers tend to categorize social games into standalone experiences, Yoostar 2 may represent “one of the first efforts to bridge the gap between devices and platforms.”

Steinberg provides an interesting six-minute video report from the Yoostar offices in Santa Monica, California that includes interviews, demos and footage from the game, and of particular interest, the technology used to eliminate the need for green screen.

Tablet Trends: Interact with Favorite TV Shows via the iPad

We recently reported on a number of new features and trends regarding media consumption via tablet PCs, especially since an onslaught of new iPad apps have been making headlines. One such potential trend may involve synchronized bonus content and interactive features related to live TV shows.

In February, Fox announced the availability of its free app for the series Bones, that enables access to a series of content add-ons while viewing the program live or via Fox.com, Hulu or DVR. Features include social media integration (users can comment with other fans and try to solve cases) and the ability to purchase songs played during the show from iTunes. The Fox launch follows the release of ABC’s iPad sync app for the hit drama series Grey’s Anatomy.

As content providers, perhaps we should be looking beyond complementary content for tablets, and consider what additional video approaches might leverage this growing platform. According to paidContent: “It’s interesting that so far the TV industry is treating tablets more as a sidecar for original programming on TV than a source of original content in its own right, as News Corp.‘s new The Daily is trying to do. Or perhaps sometime soon we’ll see a video-centric company try to evolve its product on the iPad the way News Corp. wants to do same for the news business.”

The paidContent article includes an interesting video promo for the free Grey’s Anatomy iPad app that features interactive components such as polls, quizzes, bonus content, and more.

Increased 3D Content may Push Consumer Adoption

In the wake of disappointing 3D TV sales for 2010 (due in large part to a lack of 3D content), this year may see new traction as television vendors switch their strategy to marketing 3D as one feature of new high-def sets, rather than the single selling point. More 3D content is on the horizon via cable and satellite TV channels, Blu-ray Discs and video games. Eventual adoption may also be impacted as consumers shoot their own video with 3D-enabled camcorders.

Disney’s ESPN 3D sports channel began broadcasting in mid-February — while Sony, Discovery and Imax launched their 3net channel the same month. Comcast and DirecTV already have 3D channels, and more than 100 3D channels worldwide are expected by 2015.

“Clearly, lack of content has been holding the market back,” explained Chris Chinnock, president of research firm Insight Media. “But one or two years into the HDTV transition there wasn’t much programming either … It took about seven years to reach 11 percent (household) penetration with HDTV.”

DisplaySearch predicts 6.6 million 3D TVs will ship in North America in 2011 (16 percent of the more than 40 million sets expected to be sold). The research and consulting firm is targeting 15.2 million 3D TVs to ship in 2012 (up 130 percent).

Experts say 3D Delivery is on the Rise

Home Media Magazine reports that in order to evaluate the potential success of 3D in the home, industry insiders are analyzing current 3D trends in movie theaters.

Chris Chinnock, president of Insight Media, indicates more than 100 3D films are currently in production. Chinnock adds that more than 160 were released in theaters between 2008 and 2011 — and an estimated 140-plus, at minimum, will be released between 2012 and 2015. (Insight Media oversees the cross-industry 3D@Home Consortium.)

According to Chinnock, approximately 8,000 screens in the U.S. are 3D-enabled, which may bode well for 3D in the home since most of the theatrical releases will likely get a 3D Blu-ray Disc release. Home Media Magazine reports: “Combine those with an expected 10 3D channels launching this year (25 more in 2012), 100-plus sporting events streaming in 2011 (150-plus in 2012) and 100-plus other 3D events broadcast this year (150-plus in 2012), and 3D in the home has a bright near-term future.”

Strategy Analytics forecasts that more than one-third of American homes will purchase a 3D TV in the next three years. The research firm expects 95 million 3D-enabled devices such as gaming units, set-top boxes and PCs will be sold worldwide this year.

If global 3D sales grow 89 percent this year (as predicted by Strategy Analytics), content providers will need to continue releasing fresh content in order to help drive consumer adoption.

Mitsubishi Announces its Exit from the LCD TV Market

Mitsubishi has announced that it is exiting the LCD TV market this year to focus on its DLP rear projection business. The company is the only maker of rear projection TVs sold in the US.

HD Guru explains that Mitsubishi made an early transition from big screen CRT models to lamp driven microdisplay sets. As the industry moved to flat panels, Mitsubishi opted to rely on outside vendors for its LCDs.

Mitsubishi currently offers 2010 models from 60-82-inch screen sizes, all with 3D capability. According to HD Guru: “Rear projection provides viewers with the biggest HDTV screens for the lowest prices in the industry, starting at under $850 for the 60-inch model widescreen 1080p HDTV and under $1200 for a 73-inch.” As a means of comparison, a Samsung 65-inch 1080p LED HDTV is presently offered at over $4000.

Mitsubishi 2011 rear projector models will be offered in sizes 73-inches and above.  At January’s CES, the company announced a 92-inch model to ship later this year.

Can Twitter Save Live TV?

Earlier this year, Mass Relevance commented on the possibility of “Social TV” developing from the interaction of Twitter and television. The post indicates that successful integration could, in fact, rescue live TV.

Addressing the NewTeeVee Live conference on this topic, Twitter Media team’s Robin Sloan discussed how Twitter has recently been used to enhance the live viewing experience, including: running commentary from reps of a given show, viewers tweeting about a program, and live integrated content where viewers tweet about the show and selected content is actually incorporated into the program.  The posts suggests that this last approach is, “tremendously undervalued, and represents no less than a complete revolution for the television industry.”

Mass Relevance reports that tweeting to a show could create some dynamic possibilities for increasing viewer engagement. Examples include swapping out viewer mail segments on talk shows with live tweets, soliciting questions via live tweets on political commentary programs, and incorporating Twitter into the rapid-fire approach of sports analysis shows such as Pardon the Interruption on ESPN.

The report summarizes the win/win potential: “With the audience actively participating — to drive the direction of the show, to interact directly with TV celebrities from the comfort of their living rooms, and ultimately to see their name in lights — media companies will be rewarded with a truly engaged audience, something that is not possible in a DVR-recorded, time-shifted world. Since audience members only get this shot at notoriety by interacting with the show, they are effectively forced to watch it live. This social TV experience is good for the media companies (increased ad sales), good for the advertisers (increased exposure), and — if they’re smart enough or witty enough or artful enough in their Tweets — good for the watching participant (a shot at glory).”

Apple TV Offers Live MLB and NBA Games

Baseball and basketball fans can now turn to the second-generation Apple TV for live and on-demand archived games streaming in HD.  The subscription service will cost $100/year for MLB.tv (spring training and regular season games and access to archived games).  A $120 premium version provides access to both home and away games.  Basketball games are accessible via the NBA League Pass Broadband service. The NBA service offers two options: a $65 version lets users follow up to seven teams throughout the regular season, while a $99 option provides games from all 30 teams.

Both services have blackouts based on the subscription’s registration address.

Access to the new services is enabled by the iOS for Apple TV 4.2 update, and will work similarly to Netflix. Users sign in via an account and password, and then access whatever content the subscription permits. Roku has offered similar MLB.tv access for some time and recently added NHL and UFC options. This could be what sports fans need to ditch traditional cable services.

In a related Wall Street Journal “All Things Digital” article (3/14/11), ESPN reports that only a tiny fraction of sports fans have cut the cable cord, a number that may be moot considering the equal number of fans who added cable and broadband access during the same period.

 

Cisco Offers its Predictions on the Future of Television

The two-day OTTcon (Over-the-Top TV and Video) conference took place the first week of March in San Jose, CA. In his opening keynote entitled “What Will Television Look Like in 20 Years?”, Scott Puopolo (VP Global Service Provider Practice for Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group) offered his company’s predictions on the immersive and collaborative future of TV.

Cisco interviewed 50 television experts with a focus on technology, consumer behavior, and business models to analyze the medium’s direction. Puopolo’s blog on the Cisco site offers an insightful overview of the results, including an interesting video and the implications for Cisco Videoscape. Highlights include:

Sensory Technology: “Sensory technology will enable new creative tools for producers and new experiences for consumers. So we’ll not only see Rachael Ray’s brownies — we’ll smell them, and eventually taste them, too.”

Multipurpose Screens: “Instead of buying TV sets per se, viewers will buy multipurpose screens. A screen in a bedroom could display your favorite painting or change into a teleconference monitor when you’re not watching TV.”

Interactive Collaboration: “Viewers will break the confines of the TV episode and interact with their favorite characters in everyday life. They could, for instance, collaborate with other fans to help key characters solve a crime or mystery.”

Gestural Interfaces: “Consumers will use words, gestures, and devices such as smartphones and iPads to control their TVs. You might raise the volume or choose a different show with a simple flick of your wrist.”

 

Review: The New Rovi TV Program Guide App

Rovi’s electronic program guide app “What’s on TV” receives a negative review in this evaluation from Appolicious, although the problems seem to be in the functionality, not the concept.

By entering a zip code and service provider information, users can access program guide information in addition to news and related information regarding television, movies, and celebrities. The app also enables social interaction with other TV fans via Twitter.

According to Appolicious, the downside of this simple app is evident in its navigation flaws. What’s on TV displays listings in a horizontal three-frame format (based on time, program and channel) — which sounds like a good approach — but the reviewer suggests that the “slide-able” navigation is unfortunately problematic: “If I only had channels 1 through 10, Rovi’s aesthetic design would work nicely. But, of course, I have many, many more channels, and this is where Rovi’s lack of user-friendliness is rooted. The only way to get to a particular channel is by scrolling to it. Although my basic standard-def channels are in the single digits, my extended SD programming starts on channel 101. Want to see what’s on HD? I’ll be scrolling to channel 602 for that. That’s a lot of swiping.”